The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Iraq: A Dynamic Econometric Analysis Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model

Abstract: the study aims to analyze the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in Iraq during the period (2005-2024), using a self-directed regression model, in light of the high dependence of the Iraqi economy on oil revenues as the main source of financing the general budget and stimulating economic activity. To achieve this goal, a set of macroeconomic variables were adopted, including oil prices, economic growth, the exchange rate, the money supply (M2), and government spending, and the study relied on the dynamic normative approach, as it began with a descriptive analysis of the data, and the research has reached the most important findings that oil price fluctuations affect economic growth in Iraq indirectly, as their effects are transmitted through the channels of fiscal and monetary policy, especially through government spending and the supply of cash, the research recommended strengthening economic diversification policies and improving coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to reduce the effects of external shocks and achieve greater of economic stability..