Estimation and Analysis of the Impact of Structural Imbalances on Poverty Rate inIraq for (2004-2023) By Using the (ARDL) model

Iraq faces several risks which are stemming from its over-reliance on crude oil to generate unilateral financial surpluses, upon which the macro-economy is based. This study aims to track the impact of the imbalance in the output structure on poverty rates in Iraq, the magnitude of the impact, and their trends, in order to propose practical recommendations that fix this relationship. The research problem lies in the following question: How much does the structural imbalance in the gross domestic product affect poverty rates in Iraq during the period (2004-2023), under the following hypothesis: Structural interdependence (weak structural imbalance) between the output sectors increases the welfare of the economy and reduces Poverty rates. The descriptive and quantitative approach was adopted to validate the research hypothesis. The research reached the validity of its assumption, as the lack of linkage between production sectors (structural imbalance) caused an exacerbation of poverty rates and a deterioration of local production in Iraq. The research recommended the importance of amending agricultural and industrial policies and employing oil resources in achieving a comprehensive economic plan that corrects the local economy.